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Polymarket

When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 06:27 UTCCloses 28 Dec 2026 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: October 26–November 1

46%▲ 35.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
51%31%11%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
October 26–November 1
46%▲ 35.0 pts
November 16–November 22
18%▲ 7.0 pts
November 30–December 6
12%▲ 2.7 pts
December 7–December 13
10%▲ 3.0 pts
December 21–December 27
9%▼ 5.3 pts
November 2–November 8
9%▼ 9.8 pts
No release by December 27
9%▼ 17.0 pts
November 9–November 15
6%▼ 5.5 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price October 26–November 1 as the most likely outcome at 46% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 28 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.