• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · D Senate, R House1¢▼ 0.1
  • Grizzlies vs. Warriors · Grizzlies vs. Warriors6¢▼ 37.0
  • Fed Decision in October · No change94¢
  • NATO x Russia military clash by… · October 312¢▼ 16.1
  • Trail Blazers vs. Kings · Trail Blazers vs. Kings100¢▲ 25.4
  • Fed Decision in October · 25 bps increase7¢▲ 1.0
  • Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic… · October 31100¢▲ 41.9
  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Republicans Sweep8¢
  • Brazil Presidential Election · Flávio Bolsonaro80¢▲ 2.7
  • Brazil Presidential Election · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20¢▼ 3.0
  • Clippers vs. Lakers · Clippers vs. Lakers0¢▼ 23.4
  • Which party will win the Senate… · Democratic Party68¢▼ 1.0
  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep67¢▼ 2.0
  • Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspu… · Chelsea FC52¢▼ 5.0
  • Fed Decision in October · 25 bps decrease0¢▼ 0.1
  • Fed Decision in October · 50+ bps increase0¢▼ 0.1
  • Grizzlies vs. Warriors · Spread -4.579¢▲ 35.0
  • US-Iran ceasefire continues thr… · October 2497¢▲ 5.0
Polymarket

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 04:45 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: Saudi Arabia

23%▼ 0.5 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
49%31%14%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
Saudi Arabia
23%▼ 0.5 pts
Meta
6%—
Russia
5%—
Anthropic
4%—
China
4%—
Iran
3%▲ 0.1 pts
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk
3%▲ 0.3 pts
North Korea
2%▼ 0.1 pts

How this market resolves

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The pr…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Saudi Arabia as the most likely outcome at 23% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More tech & ai markets

Latest tech & ai news

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.