Diesel price on Election Day
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 05:45 UTCCloses 3 Nov 2026 (in 10 days)
Most likely: Above $4.40
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above $4.40 | 99% | — |
Above $4.60 | 99% | — |
Above $4.80 | 99% | — |
Above $5.00 | 98% | — |
Above $5.40 | 98% | — |
Above $5.60 | 98% | — |
Above $5.80 | 98% | — |
Above $5.20 | 94% | — |
How this market resolves
If the AAA national average price for diesel on November 3, 2026 is above $4.40, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Diesel price on Election Day”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above $4.40 as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 3 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.