2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 03:12 UTCCloses 7 Nov 2029 (in 37 mo)
Most likely: J.D. Vance
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
J.D. Vance | 19% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Gavin Newsom | 12% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Marco Rubio | 10% | ▲ 0.2 pts |
Jon Ossoff | 9% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9% | ▼ 0.2 pts |
Kamala Harris | 4% | ▼ 0.3 pts |
Pete Buttigieg | 3% | — |
Josh Shapiro | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price J.D. Vance as the most likely outcome at 19% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 7 Nov 2029. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More elections markets
- PolymarketBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms68%Democrats Sweep
- Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?66%Democrats sweep
- KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?91%Democratic Party
- PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by...?49%December 31
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election76%Flávio Bolsonaro
- PolymarketWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?68%Democratic Party
Latest elections news
- Midterm election results 2026: When races will be called23 Oct 2026
- Talarico vs. Paxton Texas Senate Race Reaches Nearly $40 Million in Kalshi Trades23 Oct 2026
- Nebraska Senate Race 2026 Odds | Ricketts vs Osborn Polls + Nebraska Governor Race (Prediction Markets)23 Oct 2026
- Texas Senate Race Odds 2026 | Kalshi & Polymarket Texas Senate Predictions, Talarico vs Paxton Polls & Analysis (Oct 23 Update)23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.