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Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:41 UTCCloses 26 Oct 2026 (in 2 days)

Most likely: Flavio Bolsonaro

65%▼ 5.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
80%70%60%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
Flavio Bolsonaro
65%▼ 5.0 pts
Candidate A
50%—
Candidate B
50%—
Candidate C
50%—
Candidate D
50%—
Candidate E
50%—
Other
50%—
Lula
36%▲ 5.0 pts

How this market resolves

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Flavio Bolsonaro as the most likely outcome at 65% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 26 Oct 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.