
France declares state of emergency by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 03:17 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31 | 14% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
October 31 | 9% | ▲ 2.5 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “France declares state of emergency by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 14% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More elections markets
- PolymarketBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms68%Democrats Sweep
- Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?66%Democrats sweep
- KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?91%Democratic Party
- PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by...?49%December 31
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election76%Flávio Bolsonaro
- PolymarketWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?68%Democratic Party
Latest elections news
- Midterm election results 2026: When races will be called23 Oct 2026
- Talarico vs. Paxton Texas Senate Race Reaches Nearly $40 Million in Kalshi Trades23 Oct 2026
- Nebraska Senate Race 2026 Odds | Ricketts vs Osborn Polls + Nebraska Governor Race (Prediction Markets)23 Oct 2026
- Texas Senate Race Odds 2026 | Kalshi & Polymarket Texas Senate Predictions, Talarico vs Paxton Polls & Analysis (Oct 23 Update)23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.