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Polymarket

France declares state of emergency by...?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 03:17 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: December 31

14%▼ 4.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
37%23%9%

All outcomes (2)

OutcomeChance24h
December 31
14%▼ 4.0 pts
October 31
9%▲ 2.5 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “France declares state of emergency by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 14% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.