How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:14 UTCCloses 31 Dec 2026 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Below 4.70%
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Below 4.70% | 76% | ▲ 6.5 pts |
Below 4.65% | 67% | ▲ 4.5 pts |
Below 4.60% | 51% | ▼ 9.0 pts |
Below 4.55% | 42% | ▼ 6.5 pts |
Below 4.50% | 36% | ▼ 9.0 pts |
Below 4.45% | 28% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
Below 4.40% | 24% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Below 4.25% | 14% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Below 4.70% as the most likely outcome at 76% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.