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Polymarket

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:41 UTCCloses 28 Oct 2026 (in 4 days)

Most likely: 20-24

42%▼ 0.5 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
47%39%31%

All outcomes (5)

OutcomeChance24h
20-24
42%▼ 0.5 pts
<20
29%▲ 0.1 pts
25-29
22%▼ 1.5 pts
30-34
8%▲ 0.5 pts
35+
<1%▼ 0.3 pts

How this market resolves

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Israel Election: Likud # of seats”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price 20-24 as the most likely outcome at 42% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 28 Oct 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.