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Polymarket

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 01:07 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: Jared Kushner

36%▲ 1.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
39%35%32%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
Jared Kushner
36%▲ 1.0 pts
Rafael Grossi
33%▲ 16.5 pts
Steve Witkoff
32%▼ 1.5 pts
Abbas Araghchi
32%—
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
30%▲ 1.0 pts
Kazem Gharibabadi
28%▲ 5.0 pts
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
25%▲ 2.5 pts
Nick Stewart
25%—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participatin…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Jared Kushner as the most likely outcome at 36% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.