Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Q: What are the odds for “Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Oil ≥ $85; D Senate as the most likely outcome at 65% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

Q: What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

Q: When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Q: Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:41 UTCCloses 4 Nov 2026 (in 11 days)

Most likely: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate

65%▲ 3.9 pts in 24h

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (4)

Outcome	Chance	24h
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate	65%	▲ 3.9 pts
Oil ≥ $85; R Senate	28%	▼ 0.4 pts
Oil < $85; R Senate	4%	▼ 0.3 pts
Oil < $85; D Senate	3%	▼ 2.1 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the most recent prior trading day. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applic…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Oil ≥ $85; D Senate as the most likely outcome at 65% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.