PredictIt review: how PredictIt works, its fees and limits, and how it compares with Kalshi and Polymarket
PredictIt is the original US political prediction market. How its contracts, 10% profit fee and 5% withdrawal fee work, what changed with its $3,500 limit, and when Kalshi or Polymarket is the better choice.
In this article
PredictIt is the oldest real-money political prediction market in the United States. It opened in 2014 as a research project, survived an attempt by its regulator to close it, and in 2025 won the right to grow. It is simple to use and focused on politics, but its fees are much higher than Kalshi's or Polymarket's, which matters more than anything else in this review.
Rules, limits and fees as published in October 2026. PredictIt's own site is the final word.
PredictIt at a glance
| PredictIt | |
|---|---|
| Launched | 2014 |
| Focus | US and world politics, some economics |
| Regulation | CFTC staff no-action relief; its operator, Aristotle, also holds CFTC exchange licences |
| Limit per contract | The federal limit on individual campaign contributions per election ($3,500 at the time of the 2025 change) |
| Fees | 10% of profit on each contract, 5% of every withdrawal |
| Funding | US dollars by bank or card |
How PredictIt works
Every market asks a question, such as which party will win a Senate seat. Each possible answer is a contract that trades between 1¢ and 99¢ and pays $1 if it comes true. A price of 62¢ means traders give that answer about a 62% chance; the arithmetic is the same as on any prediction market (how to read prediction market odds).
You can buy Yes or No on each contract, sell before the market closes, or hold to the end. Markets with several contracts are linked: in a race with five candidates, only one can win. PredictIt takes that into account when you hold "No" on several of them, and charges you only for the most you could actually lose across the linked contracts. This feature is sometimes called PredictIt's negative risk, and it frees up cash for traders who bet against several candidates at once.
PredictIt fees, with an example
PredictIt charges 10% of your profit on a contract when you sell it or it settles at a gain, and 5% of any amount you withdraw. There is no fee on a losing trade.
Example: you buy 100 "Yes" shares at 40¢ ($40) and they settle at $1 ($100).
| PredictIt | Kalshi (taker) | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit before fees | $60.00 | $60.00 |
| Trading fee | $6.00 (10% of profit) | $1.68 (7% × 100 × 0.40 × 0.60) |
| Withdrawal fee | $4.70 (5% of the $94 balance) | $0 by bank transfer |
| Profit that reaches your bank | $49.30 | $58.32 |
The withdrawal fee also applies to the money you put in, not just your winnings. That is why PredictIt suits people who keep a balance on the site and trade often, and why price gaps between PredictIt and other platforms are usually not real arbitrage: the fees eat them (prediction market arbitrage).
The limits: from $850 to $3,500
For most of its life PredictIt capped each trader at $850 per contract and each contract at 5,000 traders, conditions of the CFTC no-action letter it was launched under (letter 14-130, issued to Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand).
- 2022: the CFTC withdrew the letter and ordered PredictIt to wind down.
- 2023: PredictIt's backers sued, and a federal appeals court blocked the shutdown while the case went on.
- July 2025: a settlement replaced the old letter. The 5,000-trader cap went, the per-contract limit rose to the federal limit on individual campaign contributions per election ($3,500 at the time), and operations moved from the university to a US non-profit, the Prediction Market Research Consortium.
- September 2025: the CFTC also approved PredictIt's operator, Aristotle, as a designated contract market and clearinghouse, which lets it list contracts on a full exchange licence and expand beyond politics.
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs Polymarket
| PredictIt | Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | Mostly politics | Politics, economics, sports, weather, culture | Everything, global |
| Fees | 10% of profit + 5% withdrawals | 7% × p × (1 − p) for takers | Category rate × p × (1 − p) for takers; makers free |
| Position limit | $3,500 per contract | Much higher; set per market | Very high on the global site |
| Regulation | CFTC no-action relief | CFTC-designated exchange | Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated; the global site is offshore |
| Liquidity | Thin outside big races | Deep on major markets | Deepest on most markets |
Who should use which:
- PredictIt if you trade small amounts on US politics, like its interface and plan to leave money on the site.
- Kalshi if you want a regulated US exchange with lower fees and markets beyond politics (how does Kalshi work).
- Polymarket if you want the widest choice and the deepest order books (how does Polymarket work).
How to trade on PredictIt and Kalshi
The steps are almost identical on both:
- Open an account and verify your identity (name, address, date of birth and usually your Social Security number).
- Deposit by bank transfer or card.
- Pick a market and read its rules: the source and deadline decide how it settles (how markets resolve).
- Buy Yes or No with a limit order at the price you want, or a market order to fill straight away (limit vs market orders).
- Sell early if the price moves your way, or hold to settlement.
Many traders keep accounts on both, plus Polymarket, and compare prices before every trade. Our election hub puts Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side for every 2026 race.
Is PredictIt legit?
Yes. It has operated openly in the US for more than a decade with the CFTC's permission, it pays out, and its legal position is stronger after 2025 than it was before. Its weaknesses are cost and liquidity, not safety: the fees are high, and markets outside the big races can be thin, so check the spread before you buy.
PredictIt: frequently asked questions
Is PredictIt still open?
Yes. A 2022 attempt to shut it down ended in a 2025 settlement that let it keep operating and raised its limits.
What is the PredictIt limit?
The federal limit on individual campaign contributions per election, $3,500 per contract at the time of the 2025 change, up from the old $850.
How much does PredictIt take?
10% of the profit on each winning contract and 5% of every withdrawal.
Is PredictIt better than Kalshi?
For most traders, no: Kalshi's fees are far lower and its markets broader. PredictIt's strengths are its political focus and linked-market risk calculation.
