Iowa governor race 2026 odds: Sand vs Lahn
Prediction markets make Rob Sand (D) the favourite in the Iowa governor's race, at 88% on Polymarket and 85% on Kalshi. A win would flip the governorship from Republicans to Democrats.
Odds updated 7 min ago · election day November 3
DRob Sand
86%
Polymarket 88% · Kalshi 85%
RZach Lahn
14%
Polymarket 13% · Kalshi 15%
Democrats 86%Republicans 14%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 86%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DRob Sand88%85%86%
- RZach Lahn13%15%14%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Rob Sand (Democratic), at 86% on average across Polymarket (88%) and Kalshi (85%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 86% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.