Florida governor race 2026 odds: Donalds vs Jolly
Prediction markets make Byron Donalds (R) the favourite in the Florida governor's race, at 82% on Polymarket and 81% on Kalshi.
Odds updated 12 min ago · election day November 3
RByron Donalds
82%
Polymarket 82% · Kalshi 81%
DDavid Jolly
18%
Polymarket 18% · Kalshi 19%
Democrats 18%Republicans 82%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 18%
- Platforms disagree by
- 1 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- RByron Donalds82%81%82%
- DDavid Jolly18%19%18%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Byron Donalds (Republican), at 82% on average across Polymarket (82%) and Kalshi (81%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 18% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.