Wisconsin governor race 2026 odds: Crowley vs Tiffany
Prediction markets make David Crowley (D) the favourite in the Wisconsin governor's race, at 81% on Polymarket and 79% on Kalshi.
Odds updated 2 min ago · election day November 3
DDavid Crowley
80%
Polymarket 81% · Kalshi 79%
RTom Tiffany
20%
Polymarket 20% · Kalshi 21%
Democrats 80%Republicans 20%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 20%
- Platforms disagree by
- 1 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DDavid Crowley81%79%80%
- RTom Tiffany20%21%20%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
David Crowley (Democratic), at 80% on average across Polymarket (81%) and Kalshi (79%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 20% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.