Alaska governor race 2026 odds: Kreiss-Tomkins vs Wilson
Prediction markets make Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) the favourite in the Alaska governor's race, at 85% on Polymarket and 82% on Kalshi. A win would flip the governorship from Republicans to Democrats.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
83%
Polymarket 85% · Kalshi 82%
RBernadette Wilson
15%
Polymarket 15% · Kalshi 14%
Democrats 83%Independent <1%Republicans 16%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 84%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins85%82%83%
- RBernadette Wilson15%14%15%
- IBill Walker—2%2%
- RLesil McGuire—<1%<1%
- RTreg Taylor—<1%<1%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Alaska governor race in 2026?
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democratic), at 83% on average across Polymarket (85%) and Kalshi (82%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 84% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.