California governor race 2026 odds: Becerra vs Hilton
Prediction markets make Xavier Becerra (D) the favourite in the California governor's race, at 97% on Polymarket and 97% on Kalshi. Markets treat it as close to settled.
Odds updated 10 min ago · election day November 3
DXavier Becerra
97%
Polymarket 97% · Kalshi 97%
RSteve Hilton
3%
Polymarket 3% · Kalshi 3%
Democrats 97%Republicans 3%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 3%
- Platforms disagree by
- 0 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DXavier Becerra97%97%97%
- RSteve Hilton3%3%3%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the California governor race in 2026?
Xavier Becerra (Democratic), at 97% on average across Polymarket (97%) and Kalshi (97%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 3% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.