Texas governor race 2026 odds: Abbott vs Hinojosa
Prediction markets make Greg Abbott (R) the favourite in the Texas governor's race, at 73% on Polymarket and 72% on Kalshi. Republicans currently hold it, and markets give about a 28% chance it changes hands.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
RGreg Abbott
72%
Polymarket 73% · Kalshi 72%
DGina Hinojosa
28%
Polymarket 27% · Kalshi 28%
Democrats 28%Republicans 72%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 28%
- Platforms disagree by
- 0 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- RGreg Abbott73%72%72%
- DGina Hinojosa27%28%28%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Greg Abbott (Republican), at 72% on average across Polymarket (73%) and Kalshi (72%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 28% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.