Arizona governor race 2026 odds: Hobbs vs Biggs
Prediction markets make Katie Hobbs (D) the favourite in the Arizona governor's race, at 91% on Polymarket and 89% on Kalshi. Markets treat it as close to settled.
Odds updated 2 min ago · election day November 3
DKatie Hobbs
90%
Polymarket 91% · Kalshi 89%
RAndy Biggs
10%
Polymarket 9% · Kalshi 11%
Democrats 90%Republicans 10%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 10%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DKatie Hobbs91%89%90%
- RAndy Biggs9%11%10%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Katie Hobbs (Democratic), at 90% on average across Polymarket (91%) and Kalshi (89%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 10% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.