New York governor race 2026 odds: Hochul vs Blakeman
Prediction markets make Kathy Hochul (D) the favourite in the New York governor's race, at 96% on Polymarket and 94% on Kalshi. Markets treat it as close to settled.
Odds updated 2 min ago · election day November 3
DKathy Hochul
95%
Polymarket 96% · Kalshi 94%
RBruce Blakeman
5%
Polymarket 4% · Kalshi 6%
Democrats 95%Republicans 5%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 5%
- Platforms disagree by
- 1 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DKathy Hochul96%94%95%
- RBruce Blakeman4%6%5%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the New York governor race in 2026?
Kathy Hochul (Democratic), at 95% on average across Polymarket (96%) and Kalshi (94%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 5% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.