Pennsylvania governor race 2026 odds: Shapiro vs Garrity
Prediction markets make Josh Shapiro (D) the favourite in the Pennsylvania governor's race, at 98% on Polymarket and 98% on Kalshi. Markets treat it as close to settled.
Odds updated 9 min ago · election day November 3
DJosh Shapiro
98%
Polymarket 98% · Kalshi 98%
RStacy Garrity
2%
Polymarket 2% · Kalshi 3%
Democrats 98%Republicans 2%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 2%
- Platforms disagree by
- 0 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DJosh Shapiro98%98%98%
- RStacy Garrity2%3%2%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
Josh Shapiro (Democratic), at 98% on average across Polymarket (98%) and Kalshi (98%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 2% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.